Monday, June 23, 2008

Observations on Feedback Response and Legislative Perspectives

Brian Wesbury, an economist, gives some useful perspective on the speed of feedback responses today (much, much faster than in the past) and the fix-it-through legislation perspective of both Obama and McCain:
Americans have had it so good, for so long, that they seem to have
forgotten what government's heavy hand does to living standards and economic
growth. But the same technological innovation that is causing all this
dislocation and anxiety has also created an information network that is as near
to real-time as the world has ever experienced.
For example, President Bush
put steel tariffs in place in March 2002. Less than two years later, in December
2003, he rescinded them. This is something most politicians don't do. But
because the tariffs caused such a sharp rise in the price of steel, small and
mid-size businesses complained loudly. The unintended consequences became
visible to most Americans very quickly.
Decades ago the feedback mechanism was slow. The unintended consequences of the New Deal took too long to show up in the economy. As a result, by the time the pain was publicized, the connection to misguided government policy could not be made. Today, in the midst of Internet Time, this is no longer a problem. So, despite protestations from staff at the White House, most people understand that food riots in foreign lands and higher prices at U.S. grocery stores are linked to ethanol subsidies in the U.S., which have sent shock waves through the global system.
This is the good news. Policy mistakes will be ferreted out very quickly. As a result, any politician who attempts to change things will be blamed for the unintended
consequences right away.
Both Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama view the world from a legislative
perspective. Like the populists before them, they seem to believe that
government can fix problems in the economy. They seem to believe that what the
world needs is a change in the way government attacks problems and fixes the
anxiety of voters. This command-and-control approach, however, forces a
misallocation of resources. And in Internet Time this will become visible in
almost real-time, creating real political pain for the new president.
In contrast to what some people seem to believe, having the government take over
the health-care system is not change. It's just a culmination of previous moves
by government. And the areas with the worst problems today are areas that have
the most government interference – education, health care and energy.

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